It was evident that timely use of modeling tools could help to inform and manage resources and surge capacity requirements at hospitals during severe seasons and pandemics. The study found that the model predictions were comparable to actual reports from hospitals regarding hospital and intensive care admissions in the study. Using the CDC FluAid 2.0 modeling tool, one Australian study reported a favorable forecasting value for decision making and planning of health care services during the 2009 influenza pandemic. Research teams submit weekly flu forecasts to FluSight, which then provides information on influenza onset week, peak week, and peak intensity as well as influenza-like illness activity during the season. In 2016, the CDC launched FluSight on the Epidemic Prediction Initiative website to forecast weekly influenza activity. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other institutions in the United States have developed influenza assessment tools that are made available for local-level seasonal prediction.
Various predictive tools and methods for forecasting influenza epidemics and timing of seasonal peaks for influenza have been developed. Increased hospital and health system demand during the influenza season is a high priority for health managers because influenza epidemics result in a surge of emergency department and hospital admissions. They are not generally used to forecast the severity of an emerging season and may not provide early warning for facilitating preparedness and surge capacity planning. These data, however, are typically retrospective and have inherent time lags. The data sources include laboratories, hospitals and sentinel general practices, morbidity and mortality data from health departments, and online self-reported community surveillance such as Flu Tracking. Traditionally, influenza activity is monitored through a range of national and global surveillance networks in each country and globally. In aged care facilities and within the community, estimated attack rates can be 25% or higher. It infects approximately 10% to 15% of adults and 20% to 30% of children annually. Influenza is an epidemic infection that affects millions of people around the world with varying severity.
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